Playing the Odds: How Math Shapes Poker Tactics

Poker is a game completely built on math and probabilities. With a deck of 52 cards and random draws for every hand, calculating your chances of winning is never easy. Whether you’re playing for fun or money, calculating different parts of the game can greatly affect your outcome. For simpler forms of poker like blackjack, there is an easy strategy for the game. When things get more complicated with five-card poker or Texas Holdem, calculating your chances can be challenging.

If you want to start calculating your hands, the best way to start is to determine your chances of getting your ideal hand. So, for example, you have a ¼ chance of getting each suit per card and a 1/13 chance of getting each card. You can use these probabilities to your advantage to determine your chances of getting a hand. For example, if in Texas Holdem you have 2 hearts, and there are 2 hearts in the river (see photo below), you would have a 38% chance of getting a flush. Since you only know what 5 cards are and 4 of them are of diamonds, the chance of the next card being diamonds would be 9/47 and the 5th card would be 9/46. Adding these two fractions together gets you a 38% chance of getting a flush.

This player has a 38% chance of getting a flush

Another aspect of math in poker is counting cards. Contrary to popular belief, counting cards is not that complicated, at least for simpler games like Black Jack. Counting cards does not mean you keep track of every card in the deck but rather is a method of keeping track of high cards, specifically 10s and face cards, to determine how likely you are to be dealt one. In blackjack, if you have seen a lot of face cards recently, you know the likelihood of another facecard appearing is low, and this could impact you decision on wether to hit or to stay.

Chart showing the best mathematical decisions to make in blackjack

So, while poker might seem like a game of complete chance, using math to your advantage can assist your chances of winning. At the end of the day though, remember the odds are never in your favor when it comes to poker, so bet carefully and cautiously.